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NOVEMBER 10,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

FIRST DAY ON THE INTERIM JOB – President-elect isn't a real job.  It's a symbolic job, but an important one.  It's during this period that we'll get a sense of how Trump will really operate.  His meeting with President Obama was perfect.  Both men were gracious and warm, putting the bitterness of the campaign behind them, at least in public.  Ditto with Trump's meetings with Republican Congressional leaders.  However, Trump later committed another unforced error by putting out a harsh tweet denouncing the demonstrators in the streets protesting his election.  Instead of denouncing them, he should have simply said that all Americans have the right to protest peacefully.  He's already won.  Why attack some protesters?  He's got to be larger than that.

THE RUMOR MILL – It's already started.  Names are being thrown around for posts in the new administration.  The first position filled is usually chief of staff, and controversy is already erupting because some news outlets report that Trump's first choice is Steve Bannon, his campaign CEO, and former head of Breitbart.  Bannon is extremely controversial, and disliked intensely by many Congressional Republicans for his attacks on them while at Breitbart.  Trump would be well advised to have a mix of people in his administration – some true-blue Trumpsters, but also well-known figures who are respected by Congress, and who can work to get Trump's program through.  Please remember that Trump only has a one-vote majority in the Senate.  Not all Republicans will go along with his agenda.  His appointees will have to have the skill for governing, not just the zeal.  Other names in the hopper include Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus, who put a great deal of muscle behind the Trump effort, especially in the ground game.  A much better choice.   Maria Bartiromo reported that the chief's post would go to Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, but he may be barred by the "Kennedy law," which prohibits presidents from naming relatives to executive-branch positions.

OH PLEASE – FROM THE OREGONIAN:   Two days after Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, two Portlanders have submitted a petition for a 2018 ballot initiative to have Oregon secede from the United States.  On Thursday morning, Jennifer Rollins, a lawyer, and Christian Trejbal, a writer, filed the Oregon Secession Act.  "Oregonian values are no longer the values held by the rest of the United States," Trejbal said over the phone Thursday.  Those values? "Life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness," Trejbal said, "plus equality."  "Obviously," he said, the ballot proposal "came about partially in response to the election results on Tuesday."  "But," he added, "it's been developing over time."  Question:  What would they do with those Oregonians who voted for Trump?  Would they have to seek political asylum in Idaho?  Would the other 49 states have to send ambassadors?

November 10, 2016       Permalink

ONE OF THE REASONS TRUMP WAS ELECTED – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:   The American people do not like the Iran nuclear deal.  And for good reason.  From Reuters: 

Iran has exceeded a soft limit on sensitive material set under its nuclear deal with major powers, the U.N. atomic watchdog said on Wednesday, hours after Donald Trump - who has strongly criticized the agreement - won the U.S. presidential election.

It is the second time Tehran has surpassed the 130 metric tonne threshold for heavy water, a material used as a moderator in reactors like Iran's unfinished one at Arak, since the deal was put in place in January. It had 130.1 tonnes of the material on Tuesday, the watchdog said.

The last time Iran overstepped that mark was brief, passing without major criticism from the other countries that signed the nuclear deal last year. But there are questions about whether the incoming Trump administration will react to such incidents the same way.

COMMENT:  It will not.  No, it won't go to war, but it will signal that it takes breaches very seriously.  The difference between Obama and Trump is somewhat similar to the difference between Carter and Reagan.  Reagan was more successful, by many miles.

And I would assume that, in a Trump administration, serious international agreements will be presented to the Senate as treaties, without the end run around the Senate that the Obamans pulled with the Iran deal.

November 10, 2016       Permalink

FEEL THEIR PAIN, PLEASE!  IT'S AN EMERGENCY – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  One of the results of the election is a terrifying feeling of dread in the sandboxes of higher education.  How could we have done this to our children?  From the College Fix: 

It wasn’t enough for Columbia University and its all-women affiliate Barnard College to host a single “safe space” following Republican Donald Trump’s surprise presidential victory early Wednesday morning.

They hosted at least five such spaces, only one of which was advertised before the results came in, to help students process what just happened.

Yet the school day started with Barnard President Debora Spar rebuffing a student demand to cancel classes campuswide.

Early Wednesday morning, four Barnard students emailed a petition titled “No Class Petition for 11/9/16” to the entire freshmen class mailing list

It encouraged students to sign their name “if you want classes to be cancelled/absences excused because of the election.”

“I want no class tomorrow to process. Fearful for my life!! Not trying to do a midterm while crying,” wrote one student who posted the petition to a private class forum.

In her response to the petition, President Spar put her own faculty at the mercy of students’ demands to cancel classes or postpone tests.

“While we understand that the events of the last days and hours may have affected you deeply, and may bring about heightened emotions, we have decided not to institute a College-wide cancellation of classes,” Spar wrote in an email to students.

“We are, however, leaving decisions regarding individual classes, exams, and assignments to the discretion of our faculty,” she said. “The Barnard faculty is well aware that you may be struggling, and they are here for you.”

COMMENT:  These may be our leaders in 25 years.  Well, maybe not.  Maybe Tuesday's vote will empower the real America to speak up, demand higher standards, and also demand that college students at least meet high-school maturity levels.  I'm not sure we can ask for more right now.

November 10, 2016       Permalink

WHY TRUMP WON – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  Some very good retrospectives are already being written.  Note this one from Salena Zito, one of the best conservative reporters around.  From the New York Post:

“Look, elites don’t understand why America needs to be great again because for them America is great,” says Haynes. Their economy is strong, their lifestyle is comfortable and the communities they live in, in and around New York and Washington, are the wealthiest and most influential in the country.

When these voters turn on cable TV, they see their lives and livelihoods disrespected. They don’t want to keep up with the Kardashians; they just want to watch football without a political statement thrown in their faces.

On election night, the experts kept insisting the election was a rejection of Clinton. But it wasn’t — at least not just Clinton. It was also of the Bush dynasty and every other symbol of establishmentarianism.

And until the experts start hearing it, voters will keep sending them that message.

COMMENT:  Wonderfully said.  Read the whole thing.  Zito is based in Pittsburgh, and knows the people who made Trump's win possible. 

November 10,  2016     Permalink

NOVEMBER 9,  2016

NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT.   OUR TIME HAS BEEN TAKEN UP WITH MONITORING THE POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE.  WE'LL BE RUNNING ITEMS ON THAT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REMEMBER THEM STATES? – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:  Almost overlooked in the presidential clap of thunder is the fact that the Republicans picked up three governorships last night.  From the Washington Times: 

DENVER | Republicans built on their gubernatorial and legislative dominance in Tuesday’s elections, shrugging off an onslaught of Democratic spending to flip three governors’ seats.

Buoyed by the political wave created by Republican President-elect Donald Trump and dissatisfaction with rising health care costs under Obamacare, GOP candidates wrested control of gubernatorial seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and Vermont.

Those victories raised the party’s total from 31 to 33, the largest number of GOP governors since 1922, according to the Republican Governors Association.

The Republicans’ big night came even though Democrats, who have vowed to reverse their decline in the states, outspent the GOP by $2.5 million in television ads, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis.

Four years ago, Republican candidates and committees outspent Democrats by $20 million in state contests.

“In a stunning night for Democrats on the national stage, these additional losses pushed the party further into the political wilderness in the states, where they have been struggling to compete for years,” the Center for Public Integrity said Wednesday.

COMMENTS:  The Dems are in a bad way.  Really.  They've lost the presidency, the Senate, the House, most governorships and most state legislatures.  But, despite this, they bravely move forward with non-gendered restrooms.

November 9, 2016       Permalink

BRAGGING RIGHTS – AT 9:42 P.M. ET:  Okay, the big statistical question:  Which pollster, if any, got it right last night?  Not too many pollsters are saying much about their work.  One is, and for good reason.  From IBD:

Excuse us, but not everyone got it wrong.

IBD/TIPP's final numbers put Trump up by 1.6 points in a four-way race. As of 2 a.m. Wednesday morning, Trump was up by about 1 point in the popular vote. (The actual vote outcome will likely change as votes continue to be counted over the next several weeks.)

Not one other national poll had Trump winning in four-way polls. In fact, they all had Clinton winning by 3 or more points. For the entire run of the IBD/TIPP poll, we showed the race as being far tighter than other polls. This isn't a fluke. This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right.

The Los Angeles Times, which had employed a panel of people who were queried about their choice (and which had been ridiculed throughout the election) showed Trump up in a two-way race by 3 points.

In the final poll, Raghavan Mayur, president of IBD's polling partner Technometrica Market Intelligence, said he saw more enthusiasm for Republicans and independents. He said Republican turnout would equal Democratic turnout, despite the Democratic party's registration advantage. That appears to be the case. He said independents were breaking for Trump. That also appears to be the case.

We will have more to say about this later. But for now, we are happy to say that, according to preliminary results, IBD/TIPP has now had the most accurate presidential poll four elections in a row.

COMMENT:   Can't dispute that.  Readers will recall that IBD/TIPP was one of the three polls we quoted each day in the final weeks of the campaign, the others being L.A. Times and Rasmussen.  IBD/TIPP's record is unmatched.

November 9, 2016        Permalink

MODO ON WHAT HAPPENED – AT 7:03 P.M. ET:   I've been searching for the best pieces written on yesterday's monumental election.  One is by Maureen Dowd of The New York Times.  I don't normally agree with her, but when she's good, she can be very, very good.  From her: 

The Republican establishment couldn’t stand Trump. The Democratic establishment mocked him. The Republican nominee didn’t even really seem to have much of a campaign. He spent more on “Make America Great” hats than on polling. When I visited his campaign headquarters this summer, there were more pictures, paintings and cardboard cutouts of Trump around than Trump advisers. If you don’t count Newt Gingrich — and I don’t — only one major political historian, Allan Lichtman, had predicted that Trump would win.

But then the impossible happened. As Salena Zito had presciently written in The Atlantic: “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.”

Absolutely terrific line.  Quote it to people.  It defines exactly what happened.  Salena Zito is a conservative commentator from Pittsburgh. Maureeen quotes her conservative brother, Kevin:

“She is a weak campaigner with a documented history of unsavory dealings,” Kevin wrote in an essay for my new book, “The Year of Voting Dangerously.” “She is declared unlikable by 55 percent of the electorate and untrustworthy by 67 percent. ... When the director of the F.B.I. laid bare her gross negligence for arrogantly setting up her own email system while secretary of state and announced there would be no prosecution, you could hear the heavens thunder for justice. Not since O.J. Simpson had someone so obviously guilty by the facts, walked away.

Yesterday's Trump victory reminds us of the Chinese notion of a thousand cuts.  It was one thing after the other that angered the American people.

“With Brexit, the markets went down and bounced right back,” Kevin mused at 3 a.m., sounding serene as Democrats keened and Hillary failed to show up at her party at the Javits Center. “Trump voters did the country a service. Anybody but Clinton.

“The Clintons remind me of the Universal horror movies where you thought the monster was dead and then the monster would show up in a bad sequel. I’m glad now that they’re finally gone.”

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  Well worth it.  We'll be trying to understand this election for years to come.  Trump detected something that many of us never saw coming.

November 9, 2016       Permalink

7:02 P.M. ET:  Republicans have lost a second Senate seat.  In New Hampshire, Senator Kelly Ayotte has conceded to Democrat Maggie Hassan.  However, Republicans still control the Senate.  The fact that their losses were held to two seats is almost miraculous.

12:29 P.M. ET:   President Obama delivered a reasonably gracious response to the election of Donald Trump, pledging full cooperation during the transition.  The two could not possibly like each other, as Trump was originally a birther and Obama has been going around the country charging that Trump is unqualified to be president.  But each man has pledged civility and cooperation, at least during the period leading up to the inauguration.  After that, all hell will break loose.

11:58 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton has just delivered a gracious, humble concession speech, probably the best speech she's ever given.  If she'd spoken this way during her campaign, the result might have been different.

One thing she did not say, and which must be said by Democrats, is that their party has made serious mistakes, primarily in losing contact with the American people.  Ronald Reagan, originally a Democrat, said that he hadn't left the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party had left him.  We have a repeat of that today, embodied in Donald Trump's resurrection of an old FDR theme – the forgotten man.  Democrats lost touch with the very people they claimed to represent.  And it's happened again.

COUNTDOWN – AT 11:20 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump will be inaugurated two months and eleven days from now.

In a short while, Hillary Clinton will deliver her concession speech.  Trump's acceptance speech, made in the early hours of the morning, is being widely praised for its graciousness.  I suspect Clinton will try to strike the same note. 

Paul Ryan is speaking right now.  I will go watch.  Urgent Agenda today will be more informal because I must do a great deal of reading, watching, and listening, in response to the breathtaking political revolution we've just seen.

Be back soon...

November 9, 2016     Permalink